Cancer care investment ‘no longer an option’ as Dutch diagnoses set to rise

Without intervention, the number of new cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands will increase by 23 percent from 136,000 in 2025 to 170,000 in 2045. Diagnoses will increase for almost all types of cancer. The number of cancer-related deaths will rise by 24 percent, from 46,000 in 2024 to 57,000 in 2045, the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organization (IKNL) reported in new projections.

The aging population and population growth are the main causes behind the projected increase, the IKNL said. The center urged more focus on prevention, innovation, and appropriate care, because the Dutch healthcare system will not be able to handle so many more cancer patients.

The absolute number of cancer diagnoses will increase in almost all cancer types, the IKNL projected. Among women, the greatest growth is expected in skin cancer, breast cancer, lung cancer, and hematological malignancies.

For men, the increase is primarily in skin cancer, prostate cancer, hematological malignancies, and bladder cancer. By 2045, skin cancer is projected to be the most common type of cancer for both women and men, surpassing both breast cancer and prostate cancer.

Stomach cancer is the only type of cancer for which the IKNL expects a decrease in diagnoses for both women and men. For men, the number of diagnoses for lung cancer is also expected to decrease.

“We cannot change the fact that the population is growing and aging. But we can influence factors that increase cancer risk,” IKNL researcher Jaike Schilte-Praagman said. According to the IKNL, previous estimates show that about a third of cancer diagnoses could be prevented through a healthier lifestyle and living environment, or vaccinations such as the HPV vaccine.

Reducing the number of smokers and lowering alcohol consumption could prevent thousands of cancer diagnoses, the IKNL said. “Similarly, the National Skin Fund’s campaign has led to a reduction in sunburns—the primary risk factor for skin cancer.* Such gains cannot be taken for granted,” said Schilte-Praagman.

The rise in new diagnoses will cause further pressure on the already overburdened healthcare system. “Without targeted measures, the demand for cancer care threatens to grow faster than the available capacity,” IKNL chair Ernst Kuipers said, stressing that this will affect society as a whole. “Investing in prevention, innovation, appropriate care, and a future-proof organization of cancer care is no longer an option, but a necessity.”